Visa Bulletin retrogression: priority dates move back somewhat more often in summer
In 14 of the 49 Augusts and Septembers on record, at least one of the 20 employment-based series moved back. In January through June: 30 of 149. For a single category and country the count is much lower (see the table below).
Based on 294 Visa Bulletins, December 2001 to October 2026.
Oct 1: new fiscal-year quota
We're in October now. In 7 of the 23 Octobers on record, at least one employment-based date moved back.
Your category and country
The chart above counts a month if any of the 20 employment-based series moved back. This table counts each category and country on its own: months with a retrogression in that series / months on record.
| Series | October | Aug–Sep | Jan–Jun |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1, All other countries | 0/23 | 4/49 | 0/149 |
| EB-1, China | 1/23 | 4/49 | 3/149 |
| EB-1, India | 1/23 | 4/49 | 5/149 |
| EB-1, Mexico | 0/23 | 4/49 | 0/149 |
| EB-1, Philippines | 0/23 | 4/49 | 0/149 |
| EB-2, All other countries | 1/23 | 6/49 | 2/149 |
| EB-2, China | 3/23 | 3/49 | 3/149 |
| EB-2, India | 4/23 | 4/49 | 8/149 |
| EB-2, Mexico | 1/23 | 6/49 | 2/149 |
| EB-2, Philippines | 1/23 | 6/49 | 2/149 |
| EB-3, All other countries | 1/23 | 5/49 | 5/149 |
| EB-3, China | 1/23 | 3/49 | 5/149 |
| EB-3, India | 1/23 | 4/49 | 2/149 |
| EB-3, Mexico | 1/23 | 5/49 | 6/149 |
| EB-3, Philippines | 0/23 | 5/49 | 7/149 |
| EB-3 Other Workers, All other countries | 1/23 | 4/49 | 11/149 |
| EB-3 Other Workers, China | 0/23 | 3/49 | 9/149 |
| EB-3 Other Workers, India | 1/23 | 4/49 | 8/149 |
| EB-3 Other Workers, Mexico | 1/23 | 4/49 | 13/149 |
| EB-3 Other Workers, Philippines | 0/23 | 3/49 | 12/149 |
68 months with a retrogression
Each cell is one Visa Bulletin. Filled cells had at least one employment-based retrogression; darker means more categories moved at once. Tap any filled cell to open that bulletin.
All 68 months, with sources
| Month | What moved back | Largest move back | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | EB-2 in all other countries, Mexico and the Philippines; EB-3 and EB-3 Other Workers in all other countries and Mexico | 109 days | Bulletin |
| July 2026 | EB-1 and EB-2 in India | 61 days | Bulletin |
| June 2026 | EB-1 and EB-2 in India | 317 days | Bulletin |
| August 2025 | EB-2 in all other countries, Mexico and the Philippines | 44 days | Bulletin |
| October 2024 | EB-3 in China | 153 days | Bulletin |
| September 2024 | EB-3 in all other countries, Mexico and the Philippines; EB-3 Other Workers in all other countries and Mexico | 365 days | Bulletin |
| July 2024 | EB-3 in all other countries, Mexico and the Philippines | 356 days | Bulletin |
| August 2023 | EB-1 in all other countries, India, Mexico and the Philippines; EB-3 in all other countries, Mexico and the Philippines | 3,684 days | Bulletin |
| July 2023 | EB-3 in all other countries, India, Mexico and the Philippines; EB-3 Other Workers in India | 1,261 days | Bulletin |
| May 2023 | EB-2 and EB-3 in all other countries, Mexico and the Philippines | 136 days | Bulletin |
| April 2023 | EB-2 in all other countries, India, Mexico and the Philippines | 280 days | Bulletin |
| February 2023 | EB-3 Other Workers in all other countries, Mexico and the Philippines | 152 days | Bulletin |
| January 2023 | EB-1 in China and India | Was Current | Bulletin |
| December 2022 | EB-2 in all other countries, India, Mexico and the Philippines | 176 days | Bulletin |
| October 2022 | EB-2 in India | 974 days | Bulletin |
| June 2022 | EB-3 Other Workers in all other countries, Mexico and the Philippines | Was Current | Bulletin |
| November 2021 | EB-3 in China and India; EB-3 Other Workers in India | 717 days | Bulletin |
| March 2020 | EB-3 and EB-3 Other Workers in all other countries, Mexico and the Philippines | 516 days | Bulletin |
| October 2019 | EB-2 in China | 731 days | Bulletin |
| September 2019 | EB-1 and EB-3 in China and India; EB-3 Other Workers in India | 912 days | Bulletin |
| August 2019 | EB-1 in all other countries, China, Mexico and the Philippines; EB-2 in all other countries, Mexico and the Philippines; EB-3 and EB-3 Other Workers in all other countries, India, Mexico and the Philippines | 1,277 days | Bulletin |
| June 2019 | EB-1 in India | 783 days | Bulletin |
| September 2018 | EB-2 in all countries; EB-3 and EB-3 Other Workers in all other countries, India, Mexico and the Philippines | 2,192 days | Bulletin |
| August 2018 | EB-1 in all other countries, Mexico and the Philippines | Was Current | Bulletin |
| July 2018 | EB-3 in China | 881 days | Bulletin |
| April 2018 | EB-1 in China and India | Was Current | Bulletin |
| August 2017 | EB-2 in all other countries, Mexico and the Philippines; EB-3 Other Workers in China | 926 days | Bulletin |
| July 2017 | EB-3 in China | 1,004 days | Bulletin |
| June 2017 | EB-1 in China and India | Was Current | Bulletin |
| August 2016 | EB-1 in China and India; EB-2 in all other countries, Mexico and the Philippines | Was Current | Bulletin |
| July 2016 | EB-3 Other Workers in China | 1,207 days | Bulletin |
| June 2016 | EB-2 in China and India; EB-3 in China | 1,513 days | Bulletin |
| October 2015 | EB-2, EB-3 and EB-3 Other Workers in India | 289 days | Bulletin |
| September 2015 | EB-2 in China and India | 2,905 days | Bulletin |
| August 2015 | EB-3 and EB-3 Other Workers in China | 2,648 days | Bulletin |
| July 2015 | EB-3 and EB-3 Other Workers in the Philippines | Became Unavailable | Bulletin |
| June 2015 | EB-3 and EB-3 Other Workers in the Philippines | 911 days | Bulletin |
| May 2015 | EB-3 and EB-3 Other Workers in the Philippines | 2,649 days | Bulletin |
| April 2015 | EB-3 in China | 294 days | Bulletin |
| November 2014 | EB-2 in India | 1,536 days | Bulletin |
| June 2014 | EB-3 and EB-3 Other Workers in all other countries, China and Mexico | 3,561 days | Bulletin |
| December 2013 | EB-2 in India | 1,308 days | Bulletin |
| July 2012 | EB-2 in all other countries, Mexico and the Philippines | Was Current | Bulletin |
| June 2012 | EB-2 in China and India | Became Unavailable | Bulletin |
| May 2012 | EB-2 in China and India | 990 days | Bulletin |
| May 2010 | EB-3 and EB-3 Other Workers in Mexico | Became Unavailable | Bulletin |
| July 2009 | EB-2 in China | 1,872 days | Bulletin |
| June 2009 | EB-2 in India | 1,506 days | Bulletin |
| May 2009 | EB-3 and EB-3 Other Workers in all countries | Became Unavailable | Bulletin |
| April 2009 | EB-3 in all other countries, Mexico and the Philippines; EB-3 Other Workers in all countries | 792 days | Bulletin |
| February 2009 | EB-3 Other Workers in China, India and Mexico | 516 days | Bulletin |
| October 2008 | EB-2 in China and India | 1,218 days | Bulletin |
| August 2008 | EB-3 Other Workers in all countries | Became Unavailable | Bulletin |
| July 2008 | EB-3 in all countries | Became Unavailable | Bulletin |
| February 2008 | EB-2 in India | Became Unavailable | Bulletin |
| January 2008 | EB-2 in India | 731 days | Bulletin |
| December 2007 | EB-2 in China and India | 1,096 days | Bulletin |
| August 2007 | EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 in all countries | Became Unavailable | Bulletin |
| July 2007 | EB-3 Other Workers in all countries | Became Unavailable | Bulletin |
| May 2007 | EB-3 Other Workers in all countries | Became Unavailable | Bulletin |
| August 2006 | EB-2 in India | Became Unavailable | Bulletin |
| June 2006 | EB-3 Other Workers in all countries | Became Unavailable | Bulletin |
| May 2006 | EB-3 Other Workers in all countries | 365 days | Bulletin |
| October 2005 | EB-1 and EB-2 in China and India | Was Current | Bulletin |
| July 2005 | EB-3 and EB-3 Other Workers in all countries | Became Unavailable | Bulletin |
| June 2005 | EB-3 Other Workers in all countries | 912 days | Bulletin |
| March 2005 | EB-3 Other Workers in all countries | Was Current | Bulletin |
| January 2005 | EB-3 in China, India and the Philippines | Was Current | Bulletin |
Announced between bulletins
Sometimes the State Department announces mid-month that a category has used up its visas for the fiscal year. The bulletin can keep showing a date until the next issue, so these announcements are not counted in the chart above.
- — EB-2, India: the fiscal-year visa limit was reached on 22 May 2026. No immigrant visas or green-card approvals in this category until 1 October 2026, even if the Visa Bulletin still shows a date. State Department notice
- — EB-3, all countries: the fiscal-year visa limit was reached on 9 September 2025. No immigrant visas or green-card approvals in this category until 1 October 2025, even if the Visa Bulletin still shows a date. State Department notice
- — EB-1, all countries: the fiscal-year visa limit was reached on 8 September 2025. No immigrant visas or green-card approvals in this category until 1 October 2025, even if the Visa Bulletin still shows a date. State Department notice
- — EB-2, all countries: the fiscal-year visa limit was reached on 2 September 2025. No immigrant visas or green-card approvals in this category until 1 October 2025, even if the Visa Bulletin still shows a date. State Department notice
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How this is counted
What counts as a retrogression?
Each category-and-country series is compared with the previous bulletin. A retrogression is counted when a cutoff date moves back by more than 30 days, when the series becomes Unavailable (‘U’), or when it goes from Current (‘C’) to a cutoff date. A series that stays Unavailable for several months counts once, in the month it became Unavailable.
What is the denominator?
For the chart and the headline: every bulletin on record for that calendar month (for example, all 49 Augusts and Septembers). For the table by series: every bulletin in which that series appears. The category-by-category count in the notes below uses a different denominator: every bulletin in which that category's previous value was a date or Current.
Why count months, not categories?
The State Department sets all the dates in a bulletin at once. When annual numbers run low, it usually moves several categories back in the same bulletin. Counted category by category, that one decision would look like five or ten separate events, so the chart counts months instead: a month counts once if anything in it moved back.
- Counted category by category, the summer gap looks bigger: 2.8× (85 of 887 in August–September vs. 103 of 2,961 in January–June). We don't lead with that number, because one decision often moves several categories at once. Counted by month, the gap is 1.4×.
- The gap depends on the years you look at. From October 2015 to September 2026, August and September had a retrogression 2.4 times as often as January–June (5.3× counted by category). From January 2005 to September 2015 there was no summer gap at all (0.9×).
- We fixed the count on 29 September 2026. Earlier versions counted every month a series stayed Unavailable as a new retrogression and missed moves from Current to a cutoff date, so the headline said 24 of 49 instead of 14 of 49.
- The public archive is missing 5 bulletins: March 2009, September 2009, October 2009, November 2009 and October 2012. The counts use the other 294.
- A change in the law, such as removing per-country caps, would change how visa numbers are divided. These are counts of bulletins published under the rules of their time, not a prediction of future ones.
Sources and reproduction
- Raw dataset: /data/seasonal-risk.json
- Official bulletin archive: travel.state.gov